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Moscow did not invade Ukraine to conquer it. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made the point succinctly in mid-January, saying at a press conference, “the key to everything is the guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward.” For Russian leaders, the prospect of Ukrainian membership in NATO is, as Putin himself put it before the invasion, “a direct threat to Russian security”-one that could be eliminated only by going to war and turning Ukraine into a neutral or failed state. Putin and his advisers were especially concerned about Ukraine eventually joining NATO. It was principally concerned with preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western bulwark on the Russian border. Contrary to the conventional wisdom in the West, Moscow did not invade Ukraine to conquer it and make it part of a Greater Russia. President Joe Biden has labelled Russia’s war in Ukraine a “genocide” and accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of being a “war criminal” who should face a “war crimes trial.” Presidential proclamations such as these make it hard to imagine Washington backing down if Russia prevailed in Ukraine, the United States’ position in the world would suffer a serious blow. What’s more, the United States has tied its own reputation to the outcome of the conflict.

goals in April, “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” In effect, the United States announced its intention to knock Russia out of the ranks of great powers.

As Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin explained U.S. It also sought to severely damage Russia’s economy by imposing unprecedented sanctions. But once the Ukrainian military began hammering Russian forces, especially around Kyiv, the Biden administration shifted course and committed itself to helping Ukraine win the war against Russia. The United States and its allies initially backed Ukraine to prevent a Russian victory and help negotiate a favorable end to the fighting. What lies further up the rungs could be something truly catastrophic: a level of death and destruction exceeding that of World War II. In effect, the absence of a possible diplomatic solution provides an added incentive for both sides to climb up the escalation ladder. The maximalist thinking that now prevails in both Washington and Moscow gives each side even more reason to win on the battlefield so that it can dictate the terms of the eventual peace. forces were drawn into the fighting.įurthermore, given each side’s determination to achieve its goals, there is little chance of a meaningful compromise. In practice, this means that the United States might join the fighting either if it is desperate to win or to prevent Ukraine from losing, while Russia might use nuclear weapons if it is desperate to win or faces imminent defeat, which would be likely if U.S. As a result, each side has powerful incentives to find ways to prevail and, more important, to avoid losing. Since the war began, both Moscow and Washington have raised their ambitions significantly, and both are now deeply committed to winning the war and achieving formidable political aims. To understand the dynamics of escalation in Ukraine, start with each side’s goals.

And given that the consequences of escalation could include a major war in Europe and possibly even nuclear annihilation, there is good reason for extra concern. The risk of it is substantially greater than the conventional wisdom holds. Although disastrous escalation may be avoided, the warring parties’ ability to manage that danger is far from certain. Washington and its allies are being much too cavalier. forces will become directly involved in the fighting or that Russia will dare use nuclear weapons. Although officials recognize that both Washington and Moscow may escalate to gain an advantage or to prevent defeat, they assume that catastrophic escalation can be avoided. Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus about the war in Ukraine: the conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually a weakened Russia will accept a peace agreement that favors the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Ukraine.